Weather Prediction Market Trading Bot

Weather prediction markets resolve to verifiable facts — official temperature readings — and carry zero taker fees on most platforms. Most participants cannot build a probabilistic model. The edge is structural: the gap between gut-feel betting and a Normal CDF over four independent weather APIs.

This is the complete architecture for a production weather trading bot. Multi-source forecast consensus from four independent weather APIs. Three strategies operating simultaneously: Oracle Front-Run (exploiting API update lag), Adjacent Spread (multi-bracket coverage plays), and Tail Snipe (long-shot mispricing). Five circuit breakers running independently. SQLite trade dedup that survives restarts and crashes.

Includes the safety architecture that prevents the most common prediction market bot failure: platforms returning success responses with empty fill data, causing bots to silently re-enter positions until the wallet is drained. This pattern breaks most bots — the AcceptedNoFillData architecture documented here prevents it.